Estimation - Number of Mobile Phones Sold in India annually
Guess estimate the Number of Mobile Phones Sold in India annually
Known: The population of India ~ 1.3 Billion
Assumption - Let the Rural : Urban split be 70 : 30 % of the total population.
Population Split -
Therefore, the population split approximately comes to,
Rural = 900 Million
Urban = 400 Million
Household Split -
Next, we will calculate the number of Households in India,
Assuming, there are 5 people in a Rural household and 3 people in an Urban household,
Household split come to,
Rural = (900 Million / 5) = 180 Million
Urban = (400 Million / 3) = 133 Million
In Rural India, assuming 70% of the population is above the poverty line.
Population Above Poverty Line (in Rural India) - 70% of 180 = 126 Million.
Population Below Poverty Line (in Rural India) - 30% of 180 = 54 Million.
Rural India -
Assuming, each household above the poverty line in rural India has 2 phones,
Total number of mobile phones in Rural India (Above poverty line)
= 126 x 2 = 252 Million.
Assuming, each household below the poverty line in rural India has 1 phone,
Total number of mobile phones in Rural India (Below poverty line)
= 54 x 1 = 54 Million.
Total number of mobile phones in Rural India = 252 + 54 = 306 Million
Urban India -
Assuming each household has 2 phones in Urban,
Total number of mobile phones in Urban India = 133 x 2 = 266 Million.
Assuming,
The Periodicity of purchase of mobile phones in Rural India = 4 years
The Periodicity of purchase of mobile phones in Urban India = 2 years
Therefore,
The number of phones bought in India annually,
= 306/4 + 266/2
= 133 + 77 = 210 Million
We can extend this question further to calculate the number of Smartphones sold in India,
Known : Smartphone penetration of India = 60%
Therefore,
The number of smartphones sold in India annually,
= 60% of 210 Million
= 168 Million.
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